Hot Rolled Coils Price Trend and Forecast

North America

During the third quarter of 2022, the Hot-Rolled Coil prices witnessed a downward trend in the US market owing to the lower raw material costs. According to market participants, falling feedstock prices were added to the downward pressure. The ongoing decline in Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) pricing in the United States (US) continued till September, though more significant buys and mill resistance appear to be influencing the market to establish a floor price. Furthermore, buyers were not restocking HRC in warehouses and stated that they could purchase additional tonnes based on demand. Market participants were divided on whether HRC pricing had reached a bottom, with many pointing to the August scrap trade as a leading indicator. According to manufacturers, most buyers are wary of placing large orders. They were concerned about further price reductions. Thus, the discussions for HR Coil (3 mm) prices for Ex-US Midwest (USA) settled at USD 868/MT.

Asia Pacific

Hot-Rolled Coil prices in the Asian market fell in the third quarter of 2022 due to a declining demand outlook. According to buyers, Indian mills increased their offers in mid-August due to deal closures in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. According to market participants, downstream manufacturers have shown limited interest in Indian Hot Rolled Coil quotations. As a result, Indian manufacturers have been hesitant to cite low figures and solicit customer quotations. Indian mills were hesitant to withdraw offers despite low demand in Europe, Turkey, and Vietnam. Lower exports contribute to inventory build-up, forcing steel manufacturers to adjust production accordingly. The monsoon season added to the country's limited demand for steel. Automobile manufacturers have recently reduced casting orders due to massive inventory due to poor car sales over the last three months. Therefore, the HR Coil (2 mm) prices for Ex Mumbai (India) are fixed at INR 57150/MT.

Europe

Hot-Rolled Coil prices have declined in the European market during the third quarter of 2022 owing to a sluggish demand outlook. According to market participants, despite producers pushing for higher levels, buyers' high inventories and weak demand from end-user sectors remain significant issues. European HRC buyers continued to be cautious, with only small tonnages recently traded in the spot market. Several large stockholders claim they have postponed restocking for several weeks because their inventories have been still relatively high, despite a low order intake from end users. Producers have been attempting to secure price increases due to high costs since the beginning of September, but poor demand has hampered price growth. The quotations were ineffective; buyers refused to pay and could not pass the increase downstream. However, most Italian buyers were uninterested in domestic HRC bookings and preferred imported alternatives. Thus, HR Coil (3 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr (Germany) settled at USD 848/MT.

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