Methanol Price Trend and Forecast

North America

With the third quarter ending on September 2022, the price of Methanol in the USA ended with mixed sentiment. In H1, surging fuel costs and a steep drop in Methanol prices squeezed US manufacturers’ profitability. Average export buying prices of products throughout the northeast US also have registered steep drops with revised prices for the overseas suppliers. In August, the cost of Methanol in the US slipped to USD 599/ton Spot Ex-Louisiana. However, in the second half of this quarter, the prices gained a stance with strong market fundamentals and limited regional product availability. The sharp price increase was caused by the rise in export volume and limited inventories.

Asia-Pacific Region

In the Asia Pacific region, the prices of Methanol declined in the first half of the third quarter. A healthy production rate and patchy downstream Acetic Acid and its derivative market slipped the costs of the product in the Chinese market. The inland Methanol market has been impacted by lukewarm demand, but the fundamentals were weak, resulting in a price decline. However, in the other half of the quarter, lower coastal inventory, expectations of fewer Iranian Methanol cargoes arriving in China in September, and higher crude oil prices bolstered Chinese Methanol prices. In September, the cost of Methanol in China was observed to be USD 366/ton CFR Qingdao.

Europe

In Q3 2022, the price of Methanol slipped drastically in July amid high Natural Gas. The producers tried to shift from Natural Gas to other conventional sources, reducing the costs of Methanol in the region. However, in the second half of this quarter, the prices started to emerge with limited inventories and low water levels at the Rhine River, affecting the transportation cost and delay in cargo deliveries. In September, the price of Methanol in Germany was USD 545/ton FD Hamburg. Towards the end of the quarter, Russian state-run Gazprom halved the Natural Gas Supply flowing from Russia to Europe with 20% capacity, and the prices surged.

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